Canadians could be in a better position ahead of this holiday weekend. Unfortunately, the premature lifting of public health protections like masking and the failure to invest in indoor air quality has led to higher rates of infection compared to Thanksgiving weekends of past years.
More cases compared to Thanksgiving weekend 2020 & 2021
Cases are currently much higher, which is concerning as we usually see cases take off after the Thanksgiving weekend (see graph above). With no protections in place, kids in school, less testing/surveillance, and with new variants being detected, this may set us up for a difficult fall. This coming at a time where more kids than ever are getting sick, healthcare/frontline workers are exhausted, and hospitals across the country are above capacity with some emergency rooms shutting down. Every resident in Canada needs access to health services at some point: preventing Covid infection/related illness is one of the best things we can do to keep healthcare running and support our healthcare professionals.
Shorter re-infection time with omicron variants.
There had been some information sent to some schools in Atlantic Canada suggesting that reinfection wasn’t possible or likely within 90 days: THIS IS INCORRECT FOR OMICRON. We know re-infections can occur with several weeks and a recent study has shown that these quick re-infections aren’t a rare occurrence.
The graph above shows that a significant number of re-infections occur less than 10 weeks following the last Covid-19 infection. It also shows that the BA.2 variant represents a lot of these quick re-infections. The weekly variant breakdown in the table below shows that BA.2 is the fastest growing variant in Canada right now. While it represents a smaller proportion in this table, it is important to remember that this represents swabs collected 3-4 weeks ago. There is usually a 3 week turn around when sending samples to the National Lab in Winnipeg to be sequenced.
The good news is that having this information means that we are in a better position to take what precautions we feel necessary for ourselves and our families.
Atlantic Provinces:
New Brunswick
New Brunswick has seen infections go up to about 1250 per day with a slight decrease in daily hospital admissions, no change in ICU admissions, and 2 people are dying every 3 days. About 50 people a day get infections which will prevent them from engaging in normal daily activities for at least a month: in total, this represents about 1.3% of the population. Hospitals are about 2% overcapacity, Covid-related health expenses are about $127,000 a day, and about $108,000,000 has been spent so far this year. The Covid Risk Index is currently MODERATE.
Newfoundland & Labrador
Newfoundland and Labrador has seen infections go up to about 350 per day with an increase in daily hospital admissions, an increase in ICU admissions, and 1-2 people are may die this month. About 32 people a day get infections which will prevent them from engaging in normal daily activities for at least a month: in total, this represents about 0.2% of the population. Hospitals are less than 1% overcapacity, Covid-related health expenses are about $36,000 a day, and about $72,000,000 has been spent so far this year.
The Covid Risk Index is currently ELEVATED
Nova Scotia
Nova Scotia is in a far worse position with infections increased to about 4,500 per day with a slight decrease in daily hospital admissions, an increase in ICU admissions, and about 3 dyning every 2 days. About 162 people a day get infections which will prevent them from engaging in normal daily activities for at least a month: in total, this represents about 2.5% of the population. Hospitals are about 5% overcapacity, Covid-related health expenses are about $435,000 a day, and about $127,000,000 has been spent so far this year. Despite having similar issues with staffing challenges, residents without a family doctor, and resource management issues as other Atlantic provinces, NS consistently shows the worse infections rates extended over the last 6 months (even compared to the rest of Canada).
The Covid Risk Index is currently ELEVATED.
Prince Edward Island
PEI has seen infections go up to about 1028 per day with an increase in daily hospital admissions, an increase in ICU admissions, and 1 people dying every 5 days. About 33 people a day get infections which will prevent them from engaging in normal daily activities for at least a month: in total, this represents about 2.2% of the population. Hospitals are 6% overcapacity, Covid-related health expenses are about $88,000 a day, and about $18,000,000 has been spent so far this year. The Covid Risk Index is currently ELEVATED
Actions we can take to stay safe this Thanksgiving Weekend.
Considering virtual or a mix of virtual/in-person so that everyone can feel safe and included.
Try to respect that we don’t all have the same risk factors of severe outcome or comfort level. Whatever you believe, I’m sure everyone wants their family and friends to feel comfortable and safe during gatherings. We’ve lost enough to Covid-19 already.
If you have concerns, try to bring them up with family before an event and discuss in terms of how you feel about your personal risk and comfort level. Try to find common ground because family gatherings shouldn’t be political. You don’t need to believe all the same things to connect: it’s just about respecting the concerns of vulnerable family members and adapting.
Let’s make finding common ground the #NewNormal in this era of “living with Covid”. Clean air, staying home if sick, and staying socially connected with loved ones is something most everyone can agree on. #StaySafe!
The Covid-19 situation in Atlantic Canada remains concerning with high infection rates that continues to impact health, social, and frontline essential services. There seems to be an increasing amount of hospital/ER closures (I haven’t seen anyone tracking specific data on this), It is clear that regular ER closures or limits to critical life-saving care is becoming the norm. In Eastern Canada where many families don’t have a primary care physician, it means they might not have access to healthcare until their situation becomes an emergency. Despite what some politicians may say, privatization is not the answer. Private clinics still require staff at a time where there is a severe shortage: This means they will have to poach staff from the public system, further contributing to staff shortages in other service areas and ultimately lead to increased MSI cost for Government.
Vaccines have provided some protection against severe outcomes, but they are clearly not the magic bullet we had hoped for. Covid-19 continues to evolve and in the past week at least 1 of 2 new variants of concern have showed increased immune evasion such that many treatments are no longer effective according to early studies.
What remains highly effective in reducing transmission despite Covid-19 viral evolution is masking and improved air quality through filtration and ventilation. Despite the growing body of evidence on the importance and effectiveness of masking and air quality, Governments have yet to use these tool to control Covid-19 transmission so that we can all return to a safe new normal. The consequences of this failure is becoming even more apparent in the case data as discussed below. The Provinces received a LOT of funding to improve air quality, particularly in schools. I’m sure we can all agree that better air quality and keeping kids in safe schools is a good thing.
Given how highly political social and health care have become, this may require a bigger public discussion with elected officials, who are there to represent us. Please write your MP’s and MLA/MHA’s to express your concerns on how public health is currently being managed by political agendas and contrary to science and evidence-based policy. Contact information can be found below:
The current Covid-19 situation is currently worse this year when compared to past years. This is true for Atlantic Canada and the rest of the country as described by Bill Comeau HERE. Weekly data updates from Canada Covid-19 resources are also concerning and can be viewed HERE in detail or as summarized below by province. More detailed information is also available through other provincial groups like PoP (protect our province) found under the advocacy link above.
If you are a data/stats/Epi enthusiast with professional experience and want to give further context to your regions, please feel free to message!
New Brunswick
New Brunswick is seeing 10 times more deaths, 6 times more hospitalizations, and 7 times less ICU cases than this time last year. The reduction in ICU could represent less severe outcomes with vaccinations, however this isn’t well supported by the increased death rate. Another possible explanation is that there is simply a reduction of the time Covid-19 patients are in ICU, more are being handled in “step down units” especially if ICU is simply running out of resources to manage Covid-related overcapacities. Due to highly restricted testing, I assume that infection rates are no longer accurate or comparable to last year. Please note we haven’t yet entered the next wave anticipated by public health officials, so this is likely to get worse as we enter late fall/early winter, as seen in past years and consisted with Bill Comeau’s bar graph above.
Case numbers, hospitalizations, ICU needs, and deaths all continue to trend up and numbers above represents ONE day, unless otherwise specified. In NB, about 1.3% of the population is affected by Covid-19/post infection complications which prevents them from doing normal activities and work. This is clearly impacting frontline and healthcare staff, which is a double-whammy: We have less people available for critical services at a time when we have more people needing those exact services. This is impacting everything from healthcare to supply chains and nothing is being done to protect these workers or essential services though the reduction of Covid-19 transmission. Please note we haven’t yet entered the next wave anticipated by public health officials, so this is likely to get worse as we enter late fall/early winter, as seen in past years and consisted with Bill Comeau’s bar graph above.
Newfoundland & Labrador
Newfoundland and Labrador is experiencing 20 times more deaths and 3 times more hospitalizations than this time last year.
Case numbers, hospitalizations, ICU needs, and deaths all continue to trend up. Numbers above represents the numbers seen in ONE day, unless otherwise specified. In NL, about 0.7% of the population is affected by Covid-19/post infection complications which prevents them from doing normal activities and work. This is clearly impacting frontline and healthcare staff, which is a double-whammy: We have less people available for critical services at a time when we have more people needing those exact services. This is impacting everything from healthcare to supply chains and nothing is being done to protect these workers or essential services though the reduction of Covid-19 transmission. Please note we haven’t yet entered the next wave anticipated by public health officials, so this is likely to get worse as we enter late fall/early winter, as seen in past years.
Nova Scotia
Nova Scotia is experiencing 16 times more cases of Covid-19 (a likely underestimate considering PCRs are not available to most), 38 times more deaths, 10 times more hospitalizations with 8 times more people in the ICU compared to this time last year.
Case numbers, hospitalizations, ICU needs, and deaths all continue to trend up. Numbers above represents the numbers seen in ONE day, unless otherwise specified.In NS, about 2.3% of the population is affected by Covid-19/post infection complications which prevents them from doing normal activities and work. This is clearly impacting frontline and healthcare staff, which is a double-whammy: We have less people available for critical services at a time when we have more people needing those exact services. This is impacting everything from healthcare to supply chains and nothing is being done to protect these workers or essential services though the reduction of Covid-19 transmission. Hospital Overcapacity has come down from 10-15% seen over the summer, but health is clearly still struggling with staffing levels and resource management. This despite no health measure and the exceptionally high rate of excess hospital costs related directly to Covid-19 infection. Please note we haven’t yet entered the next wave anticipated by public health officials, so this is likely to get worse as we enter late fall/early winter, as seen in past years and consisted with Comeau’s bar graph above.
Prince Edward Island
PEI is seeing 5 times more deaths, 10 times more hospitalizations, and additional ICU care required for Covid-19 infections compared to this time last year.
Case numbers, hospitalizations, ICU needs, and deaths all continue to trend up. Numbers above represents the numbers seen in ONE day, unless otherwise specified.In NS, about 2.3% of the population is affected by Covid-19/post infection complications which prevents them from doing normal activities and work. This is clearly impacting frontline and healthcare staff, which is a double-whammy: We have less people available for critical services at a time when we have more people needing those exact services. This is impacting everything from healthcare to supply chains and nothing is being done to protect these workers or essential services though the reduction of Covid-19 transmission. Hospital Overcapacity is at 11.5% showing there is a clear strain on healthcare resources, suggestions PH protectins are needed to preserve essential emergency services and protecting our healthcare workers from additional preventable burnout. This is a critical issue that must be addressed before we can expect routine healthcare services. Please note we haven’t yet entered the next wave anticipated by public health officials, so this is likely to get worse as we enter late fall/early winter, as seen in past years and consisted with Bill Comeau’s bar graph above.
Overall Forecast for ALL Atlantic Provinces heading into late fall is STORMY.
Atlantic Covid-19 Resources 